Post by comradeneres on Nov 20, 2016 12:26:01 GMT
RampageZGaming: Lol, have you seen the Russia Today clip where they interview Lenin_Lover69 under the implication that he's U.S. Personell?
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: i have to see it
RampageZGaming: www.rt.com/news/365565-us-soldiers-raqqa-photos/
RampageZGaming: It's hilarious
RampageZGaming: even the article claims it's a conspiracy of "U.S soldiers hiding their involvement by using the same uniforms as the Kurds"
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: The YPG accepts volunteers from most nations
RampageZGaming: Yeah, which is what makes that interview ridiculous. Probably the actual US special forces refused the interview and Lenin Lover was the only person they could get to talk
RampageZGaming: so they just asserted that he was a US soldier in YPG uniform lol
RampageZGaming: I can't stop laughing though. I tell you, this world is fucking absurd sometimes
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: The people interviewed didn't have the mentality of what you would expect from a trained military person sent to the region to deal with the kurds. They seemed like patriots that wanted to fight against ISIS
RampageZGaming: Yeah, the actual military personell aren't allowed to talk to media IIRC
RampageZGaming: Well, "Patriots" except for ol' commie Lenin Lover
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭:
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: Holy crap that is the same guy i think
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: XDXD
RampageZGaming: Yeah, it's the same guy
RampageZGaming: Lenin_Lover69
RampageZGaming: What a beast
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: now i kind of wish i was there to.
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: hilarious how the first person they interviewed was a communist... and they did not know it!
RampageZGaming: Lol yeah, I'm kind of jealous of him too now. I might actually go to Rojava for a few years once I get my mechanical engineering degree, if there's work I could do there.
RampageZGaming: But by then hopefully the war will be over anyways
RampageZGaming: the downside of there being no war would be that I wouldn't get to appear on RT though!
RampageZGaming: ah well
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: "Truthfully, my main contribution to the war effort are the several different versions of THE BOYS ARE BACK IN TOWN I have with me"
RampageZGaming: lol
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I want to see what he says about being interviewed by RT
RampageZGaming: He's near Raqqa right now, so it'll be a few weeks probably before he gets wifi again
RampageZGaming: The Kurdish cities on the border such as Kobane and Qamishli steal Wifi from Turkish telephone towers
RampageZGaming: but the signal doesn't extend that far south
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: he really makes me wish i was there.
RampageZGaming: Is it bad that one of the big plus sides I see in moving to Rojava would be winning internet arguments?
RampageZGaming: "Name one example of a working socialist society" "I'm living in one right now"
RampageZGaming: Of course, I'm not entirely sure if I actually want to go through with this. I'm only in the first year of a 5 year university plan though so I have plenty of time to think of it
RampageZGaming: let's just hope erdogan doesn't invade before then
RampageZGaming: There's no way he could actually annex Northern Syria though. The most he can really do is bomb and shell
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: very true. YPG and assad have a pragmatic agreement with each other
RampageZGaming: And even in terms of bombing, they can only really do so in the border cities
RampageZGaming: since Assad has threatened to shoot down Turkish jets that go too far into Syrian airspace
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: the syrian government is really the only barrier to help defend against a turkish assault.
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: most syrian people view that the whole war situation is a proxy war by the US government.
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: however if the YPG somehow managed to take control of syria and created an anti-western bloc, that would be quite acceptable.
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: Not like that will happen
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: YPG and syrian government depend on each other in the current state of affairs
RampageZGaming: The way I see it, YPG will only be "pro American" until ISIS is defeated
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I think so too. Their culture and society is incompatible with the west
RampageZGaming: at that point, the KRG under Barzani will be the main US Kurdish ally, and Rojava will heavily pivot towards Assad and Russia
RampageZGaming: Russia may be imperialist, but they're more than happy to ally with socialists if it means creating an anti-west bloc
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: agreed
RampageZGaming: Not only that, but when Russia covers Rojava they actually glamorize the socialist aspect
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: Russia is better than US on the world stage
RampageZGaming: Russia Today I mean
RampageZGaming: which is a really good sign
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: it is
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I've seen really good stuff from RT about Rojava
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: especially emphasizing the values of rojava and depicting exactly what they are building in detail
RampageZGaming: It would end up being really bad for the U.S. if this comes to play, but Barzani ends up losing the next election to the PUK Gorran Coalition
RampageZGaming: Because the PUK and Gorran parties are very anti-Turkey and PKK sympathetic, so the U.S. would have to break ties in order to appease Turkey
RampageZGaming: They may even turn a blind eye to an attempted Turkish coup in Iraqi Kurdistan
RampageZGaming: I'm not sure what Russia would do in that situation, but they would be very foolish not to heavily back PUK, Gorran, and the PKK in that situation
RampageZGaming: Because resisting a Turkish invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan would essentially mean that Russia would end up having a bloc of allies all the way from Iran to the Mediterranian
RampageZGaming: That would be really good for the Kurds, since Iraqi Kurdistan is very strong militarily speaking
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: Exactly. The turkish are allied to the west
RampageZGaming: I just see no way that the Turks can win in the long term
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I wonder how many tanks the kurdish have in their possession
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: And of what model
RampageZGaming: In Rojava, you can count their tanks on one hand. In Iraqi Kurdistan apperantly they got tons of modern American Tanks from the Iraqi government
RampageZGaming: at the same time, the KDP party also got a ton of tanks from Turkey
RampageZGaming: It's really volitile how the two major party coalitons have their own militias.
RampageZGaming: but I don't think too many KDP soldiers would be OK with a second civil war against their own people, especially not immediately after ISIS.
RampageZGaming: So we may see a lot of desertions on that front.
RampageZGaming: And KDP would lose a lot of support if they helped the Turks in a post-election invasion
RampageZGaming: I mean, surely they'd claim electoral fraud rigged by the PKK or something like that, but only so many people would believe them.
RampageZGaming: Based on what I've gauged from the actions of all the actors in this conflict, here's how it'll go down
RampageZGaming: Russia and Assad will continue to turn a blind eye to Turkish troops in their country (part of the deal they made), but will put their foot down whenever they fight the SDF. Turkey will rant and rave about invading Rojava, but won't do anything until ISIS is finished, being restricted by the U.S.
RampageZGaming: Once ISIL is done, Turkey will invade the Rojava city of Tel Abyad, in attempts to create an anti-YPG FSA group through the city's arab population
RampageZGaming: At this point, U.S. will end support for Rojava, and Russia + Assad will denounce the Turkish invasion while arming the Kurds against Turkey, and bombing the Turkish-aligned FSA
RampageZGaming: At this point, Turkey will withdrawl troops from Tel Abyad, by the orders of the United States wanting to avoid invoking NATO and starting WWIII
RampageZGaming: but will still heavily arm their FSA proxy against Rojava
RampageZGaming: In the end, however, the FSA won't be able to hold up, as they simply wont' have enough popular support. Additionally, YPG has proven its capability of fighting the Turkish-aligned FSA groups even while being bombarded under Turkish artillery fire
RampageZGaming: Once FSA in Northern Syria inevitably falls, it'll likely be the end of Turkish involvement in Syria
RampageZGaming: At that point, they'll probably just continually strike YPG positions with artillery, at least until the autonomous zone of Rojava is officially recognized by Russia
RampageZGaming: Once this happens, Turkey will turn their anti-kurd sights domestically, and also in Iraq
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: You've looked into some very specific details in the region
RampageZGaming: So we can expect huge anti-PKK clampdowns in both Turkey and Iraq
RampageZGaming: I'd say that there's around an 80-90% chance of things playing out as I've said
RampageZGaming: All the actors in this conflict, through their behavior, have made their intentions and their plans pretty clear
RampageZGaming: This is just the logical conclusion
RampageZGaming: The Kurds probably won't connect the cantons until after Assad starts fighting Al-bab FSA though
RampageZGaming: If they manage to connect the cantons after that, it'll be through some sort of deal where trade caravans and troops can pass through the city after Assad's troops take it
RampageZGaming: I think Assad will tolerate Kurdish autonomy at the request of Russia, but won't let the Kurds keep complete control over the Northeast oil wells
RampageZGaming: the likely solution will be that they draft some sort of deal where the Kurds get a portion of the oil revenue proportional to their population
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: The analysis for the future of the region seems well developed. do you happen to have your sources compiled?
RampageZGaming: I don't have any of the links saved, but a compilation of the major events from /r/syriancivilwar over the past few months would be more than enough evidence
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: The general analysis i think is good, its the specific details that i'm interested in
RampageZGaming: Like what exactly
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: "RampageZGaming: Once ISIL is done, Turkey will invade the Rojava city of Tel Abyad, in attempts to create an anti-YPG FSA group through the city's arab population"
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: And the fighting between YPG and FSA since it's not reported very often
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I especially want sources about the fighting between those two groups
RampageZGaming: OK hold on, I can give you the most recent battle
RampageZGaming: where mixed YPG-SDF units fought Turkish-backed FSA under artillery fire and Turkish jet bombing
RampageZGaming: and then after that I'll find you the link of when Assad threatened to shoot down Turkish planes
RampageZGaming: hold on a second
RampageZGaming: Well here's the second parrt
RampageZGaming: www.rt.com/news/363579-syria-warns-turkey-bombing-kurds/
RampageZGaming: Trying to find the first one
RampageZGaming: Ok, I can't find a specific news article but here's some wikipedia linkls and battle footage from the side of the FSA
RampageZGaming: www.youtube.com/watch?v=-t2jbQDYjUE
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: Glad to see that the turkish are defending the kurds
RampageZGaming: So essentially what happened was that the euphrates Jarabulus brigades, aided by Turkey, started to attack the YPG in an attempt to cut off the eastward advance of Afrin canton troops
RampageZGaming: syria.liveuamap.com/
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: This video makes me realize how much content is restricted simply by not using the right language
RampageZGaming: As you see here, in the western pocket of Rojava (Efrin), they've been advancing eastward in a little corridor between assad and Turkish FSA
RampageZGaming: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euphrates_Jarabulus_Brigades
RampageZGaming: these brigades were tasked with cutting off this coordor. There were heavy clashes, but then they stopped when Assad threatened to shoot down a Turkish jet
RampageZGaming: but also because FSA were unable to gain very much ground, they only really captured like a single farm from the Kurds
RampageZGaming: It would have had to be a meat grind that the Euphrates Jarbalus bridages simply could not prolong without continued air support
RampageZGaming: hold on let me find a bit more info for you
RampageZGaming: but also because FSA were unable to gain very much ground, they only really captured like a single farm from the Kurds
RampageZGaming: It would have had to be a meat grind that the Euphrates Jarbalus bridages simply could not prolong without continued air support
RampageZGaming: hold on let me find a bit more info for you
RampageZGaming: www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/middle-east/93884-151128-kurds-attack-turkish-sponsored-syrian-opposition-forces-with-russian-help
RampageZGaming: here's an article I found
RampageZGaming: but this was a completely different battle from last year
RampageZGaming: somewhat similar situation, though, only Russia was the one providing air support
RampageZGaming: It's hard to find media sources since they rarely report on specific skirmishes and troop movements
RampageZGaming: I hope I was able to find the info you were looking for though
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I think so
RampageZGaming: Here's another one, this one from this year
RampageZGaming: www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/turkey/.premium-1.739083
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: "In the past few days, Kurdish forces along with forces loyal to them have attacked the only supply line for Syrian opposition forces in Aleppo, and were accompanied by a Russian aerial bombardment, al-Araby al-Jadeed reported.
The London-based newspaper reported that rebel forces, including the Nusra Front, engaged in fighting with Jaysh al-Thuwar, a faction affiliated to the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), in northern Aleppo near Azaz, according to an activist in the area.
According to the report, Russian air strikes accompanied the attacks on rebel positions on the outskirts of villages close to the Syrian-Turkish border.
The Russian Air Force has increased its strikes in the past few days on the border between Turkey and Syria after a Russian plane was downed by Turkey earlier in the week. Turkish F-16 jets on Tuesday shot down a Russian warplane which Ankara said had breached its air space. Russia on Thursday vowed to carry out broad retaliatory measures against Turkey's economy.
"The attack by the YPG is a serious test of Turkey's statements regarding establishing a safe zone," activist Bahaa al-Halabi suggested in statements to al-Araby al-Jadeed.
"
RampageZGaming: So essentially, Turkey's involvement in Syria seems like a huge appeasement to Erdogan's voting base
RampageZGaming: and also to the United States
RampageZGaming: They'll back FSA against the YPG, and will shell and bomb them until Russia intervenes, at which point they'll give in to the requests of the United States and focus on ISIS
RampageZGaming: There's no long term strategy, here. The Islamist FSA groups Turkey supports simply will not be able to have permanent control over this territory
RampageZGaming: And Assad and Russia will not permit an outright annexation
RampageZGaming: And they can't advance against the Kurds very far before Assad and Russia intervene
RampageZGaming: The only logical benefit that Turkey's involvement has is as a local publicity stunt
RampageZGaming: to show their public that they're willing to fight the evil PKK that's gaining power in Syria
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: A relationship between YPG and the west is entirely unsustainable
RampageZGaming: when they're unable to completely obliterate the YPG like the Turks on the internet fantasize doing, they'll have a perfect scapegoat in blaming russia for foiling their plans
RampageZGaming: and thus the voting public will be content
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: But your theory suggest things wont go down that way
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: That turkey will fail to obliterate YPG
RampageZGaming: So long as Russia continues to support the YPG, Erdogan has no viable option for invading Rojava. All he can do is make like Trump and build a wall to stop YPG from sending aid to the PKK or crossing the borders at all
RampageZGaming: American support for YPG will wane as ISIS stops being a threat in Syria, Russia will keep their support for economic and political interests
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: america already puts an over emphasis on peshmerga troops, as if to overlook the YPG.
RampageZGaming: think of it this way: Assad can't take direct control over Rojava, because that would create prolonged insurgency of Kurds fighting Assad, and a vacuum of power that would allow FSA to take control of territory again
RampageZGaming: So, the best option, and this is the option that Russia has been pushing, is letting the Kurds stay autonomous in exchange for a portion of their oil revenue
RampageZGaming: this way, Russia has allies in every part of Syria, and a long term plan for having an allied government in Iraqi Kurdistan as well
RampageZGaming: Assad won't recognize Kurdish autonomy for a while because the whole "one united Syria" thing is a huge propaganda goal for the SAA
RampageZGaming: but Assad knows he can't take back control from the Kurds. If he thought he could, he would have invaded them back in the al-hasaka incident
RampageZGaming: The only option would be joining forces with Erdogan to take on the Kurds from both sides, which would be completely unviable because Turkey is in the NATO sphere of influence, and also has aspirations to annex Northern Syria
RampageZGaming: So Turkey would come in, and stay indefinitely if that were to happen
RampageZGaming: If Russia and Assad act in their best interests, this kind of arrangement is the only real end game
RampageZGaming: the kind of arrangement where Kurds in rojava are autonomous, I mean
RampageZGaming: There's a negotition strategy where you demand an extreme, but then pretend to compromise afterwards so the other group thinks they're getting an exceptionally good deal
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: Thats just the logical conclusion. The other routes of what could happen would conflict with the interest of atleast a single power every time.
RampageZGaming: This is what Assad is doing, he's not recognizing Kurdish autonomy now, because he still has his long term eyes on the oil
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I think your theory is well researched and very viable
RampageZGaming: so by appearing to be stubborn now, he can encourage the Kurds to concede to him later on
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: i have to see it
RampageZGaming: www.rt.com/news/365565-us-soldiers-raqqa-photos/
RampageZGaming: It's hilarious
RampageZGaming: even the article claims it's a conspiracy of "U.S soldiers hiding their involvement by using the same uniforms as the Kurds"
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: The YPG accepts volunteers from most nations
RampageZGaming: Yeah, which is what makes that interview ridiculous. Probably the actual US special forces refused the interview and Lenin Lover was the only person they could get to talk
RampageZGaming: so they just asserted that he was a US soldier in YPG uniform lol
RampageZGaming: I can't stop laughing though. I tell you, this world is fucking absurd sometimes
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: The people interviewed didn't have the mentality of what you would expect from a trained military person sent to the region to deal with the kurds. They seemed like patriots that wanted to fight against ISIS
RampageZGaming: Yeah, the actual military personell aren't allowed to talk to media IIRC
RampageZGaming: Well, "Patriots" except for ol' commie Lenin Lover
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭:
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: Holy crap that is the same guy i think
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: XDXD
RampageZGaming: Yeah, it's the same guy
RampageZGaming: Lenin_Lover69
RampageZGaming: What a beast
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: now i kind of wish i was there to.
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: hilarious how the first person they interviewed was a communist... and they did not know it!
RampageZGaming: Lol yeah, I'm kind of jealous of him too now. I might actually go to Rojava for a few years once I get my mechanical engineering degree, if there's work I could do there.
RampageZGaming: But by then hopefully the war will be over anyways
RampageZGaming: the downside of there being no war would be that I wouldn't get to appear on RT though!
RampageZGaming: ah well
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: "Truthfully, my main contribution to the war effort are the several different versions of THE BOYS ARE BACK IN TOWN I have with me"
RampageZGaming: lol
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I want to see what he says about being interviewed by RT
RampageZGaming: He's near Raqqa right now, so it'll be a few weeks probably before he gets wifi again
RampageZGaming: The Kurdish cities on the border such as Kobane and Qamishli steal Wifi from Turkish telephone towers
RampageZGaming: but the signal doesn't extend that far south
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: he really makes me wish i was there.
RampageZGaming: Is it bad that one of the big plus sides I see in moving to Rojava would be winning internet arguments?
RampageZGaming: "Name one example of a working socialist society" "I'm living in one right now"
RampageZGaming: Of course, I'm not entirely sure if I actually want to go through with this. I'm only in the first year of a 5 year university plan though so I have plenty of time to think of it
RampageZGaming: let's just hope erdogan doesn't invade before then
RampageZGaming: There's no way he could actually annex Northern Syria though. The most he can really do is bomb and shell
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: very true. YPG and assad have a pragmatic agreement with each other
RampageZGaming: And even in terms of bombing, they can only really do so in the border cities
RampageZGaming: since Assad has threatened to shoot down Turkish jets that go too far into Syrian airspace
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: the syrian government is really the only barrier to help defend against a turkish assault.
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: most syrian people view that the whole war situation is a proxy war by the US government.
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: however if the YPG somehow managed to take control of syria and created an anti-western bloc, that would be quite acceptable.
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: Not like that will happen
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: YPG and syrian government depend on each other in the current state of affairs
RampageZGaming: The way I see it, YPG will only be "pro American" until ISIS is defeated
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I think so too. Their culture and society is incompatible with the west
RampageZGaming: at that point, the KRG under Barzani will be the main US Kurdish ally, and Rojava will heavily pivot towards Assad and Russia
RampageZGaming: Russia may be imperialist, but they're more than happy to ally with socialists if it means creating an anti-west bloc
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: agreed
RampageZGaming: Not only that, but when Russia covers Rojava they actually glamorize the socialist aspect
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: Russia is better than US on the world stage
RampageZGaming: Russia Today I mean
RampageZGaming: which is a really good sign
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: it is
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I've seen really good stuff from RT about Rojava
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: especially emphasizing the values of rojava and depicting exactly what they are building in detail
RampageZGaming: It would end up being really bad for the U.S. if this comes to play, but Barzani ends up losing the next election to the PUK Gorran Coalition
RampageZGaming: Because the PUK and Gorran parties are very anti-Turkey and PKK sympathetic, so the U.S. would have to break ties in order to appease Turkey
RampageZGaming: They may even turn a blind eye to an attempted Turkish coup in Iraqi Kurdistan
RampageZGaming: I'm not sure what Russia would do in that situation, but they would be very foolish not to heavily back PUK, Gorran, and the PKK in that situation
RampageZGaming: Because resisting a Turkish invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan would essentially mean that Russia would end up having a bloc of allies all the way from Iran to the Mediterranian
RampageZGaming: That would be really good for the Kurds, since Iraqi Kurdistan is very strong militarily speaking
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: Exactly. The turkish are allied to the west
RampageZGaming: I just see no way that the Turks can win in the long term
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I wonder how many tanks the kurdish have in their possession
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: And of what model
RampageZGaming: In Rojava, you can count their tanks on one hand. In Iraqi Kurdistan apperantly they got tons of modern American Tanks from the Iraqi government
RampageZGaming: at the same time, the KDP party also got a ton of tanks from Turkey
RampageZGaming: It's really volitile how the two major party coalitons have their own militias.
RampageZGaming: but I don't think too many KDP soldiers would be OK with a second civil war against their own people, especially not immediately after ISIS.
RampageZGaming: So we may see a lot of desertions on that front.
RampageZGaming: And KDP would lose a lot of support if they helped the Turks in a post-election invasion
RampageZGaming: I mean, surely they'd claim electoral fraud rigged by the PKK or something like that, but only so many people would believe them.
RampageZGaming: Based on what I've gauged from the actions of all the actors in this conflict, here's how it'll go down
RampageZGaming: Russia and Assad will continue to turn a blind eye to Turkish troops in their country (part of the deal they made), but will put their foot down whenever they fight the SDF. Turkey will rant and rave about invading Rojava, but won't do anything until ISIS is finished, being restricted by the U.S.
RampageZGaming: Once ISIL is done, Turkey will invade the Rojava city of Tel Abyad, in attempts to create an anti-YPG FSA group through the city's arab population
RampageZGaming: At this point, U.S. will end support for Rojava, and Russia + Assad will denounce the Turkish invasion while arming the Kurds against Turkey, and bombing the Turkish-aligned FSA
RampageZGaming: At this point, Turkey will withdrawl troops from Tel Abyad, by the orders of the United States wanting to avoid invoking NATO and starting WWIII
RampageZGaming: but will still heavily arm their FSA proxy against Rojava
RampageZGaming: In the end, however, the FSA won't be able to hold up, as they simply wont' have enough popular support. Additionally, YPG has proven its capability of fighting the Turkish-aligned FSA groups even while being bombarded under Turkish artillery fire
RampageZGaming: Once FSA in Northern Syria inevitably falls, it'll likely be the end of Turkish involvement in Syria
RampageZGaming: At that point, they'll probably just continually strike YPG positions with artillery, at least until the autonomous zone of Rojava is officially recognized by Russia
RampageZGaming: Once this happens, Turkey will turn their anti-kurd sights domestically, and also in Iraq
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: You've looked into some very specific details in the region
RampageZGaming: So we can expect huge anti-PKK clampdowns in both Turkey and Iraq
RampageZGaming: I'd say that there's around an 80-90% chance of things playing out as I've said
RampageZGaming: All the actors in this conflict, through their behavior, have made their intentions and their plans pretty clear
RampageZGaming: This is just the logical conclusion
RampageZGaming: The Kurds probably won't connect the cantons until after Assad starts fighting Al-bab FSA though
RampageZGaming: If they manage to connect the cantons after that, it'll be through some sort of deal where trade caravans and troops can pass through the city after Assad's troops take it
RampageZGaming: I think Assad will tolerate Kurdish autonomy at the request of Russia, but won't let the Kurds keep complete control over the Northeast oil wells
RampageZGaming: the likely solution will be that they draft some sort of deal where the Kurds get a portion of the oil revenue proportional to their population
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: The analysis for the future of the region seems well developed. do you happen to have your sources compiled?
RampageZGaming: I don't have any of the links saved, but a compilation of the major events from /r/syriancivilwar over the past few months would be more than enough evidence
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: The general analysis i think is good, its the specific details that i'm interested in
RampageZGaming: Like what exactly
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: "RampageZGaming: Once ISIL is done, Turkey will invade the Rojava city of Tel Abyad, in attempts to create an anti-YPG FSA group through the city's arab population"
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: And the fighting between YPG and FSA since it's not reported very often
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I especially want sources about the fighting between those two groups
RampageZGaming: OK hold on, I can give you the most recent battle
RampageZGaming: where mixed YPG-SDF units fought Turkish-backed FSA under artillery fire and Turkish jet bombing
RampageZGaming: and then after that I'll find you the link of when Assad threatened to shoot down Turkish planes
RampageZGaming: hold on a second
RampageZGaming: Well here's the second parrt
RampageZGaming: www.rt.com/news/363579-syria-warns-turkey-bombing-kurds/
RampageZGaming: Trying to find the first one
RampageZGaming: Ok, I can't find a specific news article but here's some wikipedia linkls and battle footage from the side of the FSA
RampageZGaming: www.youtube.com/watch?v=-t2jbQDYjUE
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: Glad to see that the turkish are defending the kurds
RampageZGaming: So essentially what happened was that the euphrates Jarabulus brigades, aided by Turkey, started to attack the YPG in an attempt to cut off the eastward advance of Afrin canton troops
RampageZGaming: syria.liveuamap.com/
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: This video makes me realize how much content is restricted simply by not using the right language
RampageZGaming: As you see here, in the western pocket of Rojava (Efrin), they've been advancing eastward in a little corridor between assad and Turkish FSA
RampageZGaming: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euphrates_Jarabulus_Brigades
RampageZGaming: these brigades were tasked with cutting off this coordor. There were heavy clashes, but then they stopped when Assad threatened to shoot down a Turkish jet
RampageZGaming: but also because FSA were unable to gain very much ground, they only really captured like a single farm from the Kurds
RampageZGaming: It would have had to be a meat grind that the Euphrates Jarbalus bridages simply could not prolong without continued air support
RampageZGaming: hold on let me find a bit more info for you
RampageZGaming: but also because FSA were unable to gain very much ground, they only really captured like a single farm from the Kurds
RampageZGaming: It would have had to be a meat grind that the Euphrates Jarbalus bridages simply could not prolong without continued air support
RampageZGaming: hold on let me find a bit more info for you
RampageZGaming: www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/middle-east/93884-151128-kurds-attack-turkish-sponsored-syrian-opposition-forces-with-russian-help
RampageZGaming: here's an article I found
RampageZGaming: but this was a completely different battle from last year
RampageZGaming: somewhat similar situation, though, only Russia was the one providing air support
RampageZGaming: It's hard to find media sources since they rarely report on specific skirmishes and troop movements
RampageZGaming: I hope I was able to find the info you were looking for though
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I think so
RampageZGaming: Here's another one, this one from this year
RampageZGaming: www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/turkey/.premium-1.739083
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: "In the past few days, Kurdish forces along with forces loyal to them have attacked the only supply line for Syrian opposition forces in Aleppo, and were accompanied by a Russian aerial bombardment, al-Araby al-Jadeed reported.
The London-based newspaper reported that rebel forces, including the Nusra Front, engaged in fighting with Jaysh al-Thuwar, a faction affiliated to the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), in northern Aleppo near Azaz, according to an activist in the area.
According to the report, Russian air strikes accompanied the attacks on rebel positions on the outskirts of villages close to the Syrian-Turkish border.
The Russian Air Force has increased its strikes in the past few days on the border between Turkey and Syria after a Russian plane was downed by Turkey earlier in the week. Turkish F-16 jets on Tuesday shot down a Russian warplane which Ankara said had breached its air space. Russia on Thursday vowed to carry out broad retaliatory measures against Turkey's economy.
"The attack by the YPG is a serious test of Turkey's statements regarding establishing a safe zone," activist Bahaa al-Halabi suggested in statements to al-Araby al-Jadeed.
"
RampageZGaming: So essentially, Turkey's involvement in Syria seems like a huge appeasement to Erdogan's voting base
RampageZGaming: and also to the United States
RampageZGaming: They'll back FSA against the YPG, and will shell and bomb them until Russia intervenes, at which point they'll give in to the requests of the United States and focus on ISIS
RampageZGaming: There's no long term strategy, here. The Islamist FSA groups Turkey supports simply will not be able to have permanent control over this territory
RampageZGaming: And Assad and Russia will not permit an outright annexation
RampageZGaming: And they can't advance against the Kurds very far before Assad and Russia intervene
RampageZGaming: The only logical benefit that Turkey's involvement has is as a local publicity stunt
RampageZGaming: to show their public that they're willing to fight the evil PKK that's gaining power in Syria
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: A relationship between YPG and the west is entirely unsustainable
RampageZGaming: when they're unable to completely obliterate the YPG like the Turks on the internet fantasize doing, they'll have a perfect scapegoat in blaming russia for foiling their plans
RampageZGaming: and thus the voting public will be content
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: But your theory suggest things wont go down that way
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: That turkey will fail to obliterate YPG
RampageZGaming: So long as Russia continues to support the YPG, Erdogan has no viable option for invading Rojava. All he can do is make like Trump and build a wall to stop YPG from sending aid to the PKK or crossing the borders at all
RampageZGaming: American support for YPG will wane as ISIS stops being a threat in Syria, Russia will keep their support for economic and political interests
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: america already puts an over emphasis on peshmerga troops, as if to overlook the YPG.
RampageZGaming: think of it this way: Assad can't take direct control over Rojava, because that would create prolonged insurgency of Kurds fighting Assad, and a vacuum of power that would allow FSA to take control of territory again
RampageZGaming: So, the best option, and this is the option that Russia has been pushing, is letting the Kurds stay autonomous in exchange for a portion of their oil revenue
RampageZGaming: this way, Russia has allies in every part of Syria, and a long term plan for having an allied government in Iraqi Kurdistan as well
RampageZGaming: Assad won't recognize Kurdish autonomy for a while because the whole "one united Syria" thing is a huge propaganda goal for the SAA
RampageZGaming: but Assad knows he can't take back control from the Kurds. If he thought he could, he would have invaded them back in the al-hasaka incident
RampageZGaming: The only option would be joining forces with Erdogan to take on the Kurds from both sides, which would be completely unviable because Turkey is in the NATO sphere of influence, and also has aspirations to annex Northern Syria
RampageZGaming: So Turkey would come in, and stay indefinitely if that were to happen
RampageZGaming: If Russia and Assad act in their best interests, this kind of arrangement is the only real end game
RampageZGaming: the kind of arrangement where Kurds in rojava are autonomous, I mean
RampageZGaming: There's a negotition strategy where you demand an extreme, but then pretend to compromise afterwards so the other group thinks they're getting an exceptionally good deal
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: Thats just the logical conclusion. The other routes of what could happen would conflict with the interest of atleast a single power every time.
RampageZGaming: This is what Assad is doing, he's not recognizing Kurdish autonomy now, because he still has his long term eyes on the oil
Comrade Sokami Mashibe ☭: I think your theory is well researched and very viable
RampageZGaming: so by appearing to be stubborn now, he can encourage the Kurds to concede to him later on